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Several key conclusion can be reached from this essay's analysis of
the Japanese aerospace industry:
-
Japan effectively competes today in the international aerospace industry
in the manufacture of aircraft and engine components through its strategy
of participating in international collaboration projects and focusing on
strong niche technology areas.
-
Based on Japan's learning on the F-2 fighter program and their international
collaborations, the country will soon possess the capability to develop
and produce an indigenous aircraft, but it still lacks critical technologies
to effectively produce a large aircraft engine without foreign assistance.
Even though Japan may have the ability to produce an indigenous aircraft,
it would be a strategic error to pursue this project alone due to its huge
cost and commercial risk.
-
Japanese aerospace companies still have weaknesses in certain areas such
as systems integration, assembly, design, and marketing, but they are actively
seeking to gain experience and improve their skills in these areas by participating
in key international collaboration projects.
Based on the worldwide and Japanese aerospace industry trends analyzed
in this paper, I offer some predictions of the future:
-
Japanese companies will continue to join in international collaboration
projects and will demand more significant participation in future projects—both
larger percentage workshares and more critical and high technology sections
of planes and engines. Japan will achieve this by exploiting the intense
rivalry of the international prime contractors. Building on their Boeing
collaboration projects, the Japanese will gradually increase their participation
in Airbus projects.
-
Within twenty years, and maybe much sooner, the Japanese will join with
a current prime aircraft or engine contractor in a 50/50 joint venture
to develop and produce a new aircraft or engine. This joint venture might
be similar to the successful CFM engine joint venture between General Electric
and the French company Snecma.
-
Japan will never launch a totally indigenous commercial aircraft or engine
program, but in the future Japanese aerospace companies will participate
as equal rather than junior partners in international collaboration projects.
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